Stop guessing whether a box is worth ripping. Enter what you'd pay and the hits you realistically expect, and this runs the same expected-value math behind every box ranking on this site — total EV, net profit or loss, ROI, and a straight rip-or-flip verdict.
Expected value is the only honest way to rate a sealed box. The formula is simple: for each type of hit, multiply how many you'd average per box by what that hit actually sells for, then add it all up. Compare that total to the box cost. If EV is below cost, the box is a -EV rip and you're statistically better off buying the singles you want. Garbage in, garbage out — pull your odds from manufacturer odds sheets and your values from eBay sold comps, not asking prices.
Defaults below show a typical ~$300 baseball hobby box. Edit every field — add or remove hit rows to match the product you're eyeing.
| Hit / Card Type | Avg # Per Box | Avg Value ($) | Line EV |
|---|
Simulated from your numbers — hit counts vary box to box and sale prices vary around your averages. Each bar is a slice of outcomes after fees: red loses money, green makes money, the gold line is break-even.
Break-even multiple = box cost ÷ expected value. Above 1.0× means you're paying a premium over the math; below 1.0× means the sealed product is underpriced versus its contents. These are estimates — the market moves daily and variance on a single box is brutal. EV is what plays out over many boxes, not the next one you open.
Don't have the odds handy? We've already run the EV on the year's biggest releases. Start here.