🔥 Pokémon TCG · ME04 · Released May 22, 2026

Chaos Rising
Set Guide 2026

The hottest Pokémon TCG set of 2026. Mega Greninja ex SIR at $470–$505, Hyper Rare Gold at $330–$485. All 6 SIRs ranked with pull rates, eBay sold comps, and honest buy verdicts.

● Prices Updated June 2026 🎴 122 Cards ⭐ 6 SIRs Ranked 💰 eBay Sold Comps

Chaos Rising — At a Glance

Based on Japan's Ninja Spinner set. Lumiose City conflict from Pokémon Legends: Z-A. The 2026 Mega Evolution era's biggest release.

All Chase Cards — Ranked by Price

Every Chaos Rising Chase Card

All prices from eBay completed/sold listings, June 2026. Sorted by current market value.

#CardRarityCard #eBay Sold PricePSA 10 Est.Verdict
1
Mega Greninja exMega Hyper Rare · Set Mascot ★ Mega Hyper Rare #122/086 $330–$485 ~1:1,786 packs BUY
2
Mega Greninja exSIR — Connected Art Triptych Finisher ★ SIR #116/086 $470–$505 $800–$1,200 projected BUY
3
AZ's TranquilitySIR Supporter · X&Y Storyline Resolution ★ SIR Trainer SIR ~$120–$180 Strong long-term hold BUY
4
Cinccino exSIR — Surprise hit of the set ★ SIR SIR ~$109 Early market — watch WATCH
5
Mega Dragalge exSIR — Sleeper pick, rare Poison/Dragon typing ★ SIR #118/086 ~$60–$90 Unique typing = collector niche WATCH
6
Froakie / Frogadier / GreninjaIR Triptych — Connected Panorama Art Illus. Rare × 3 Set of 3 IRs ~$80 (set) Display piece, stable demand WATCH
7
Special Red CardUltra Rare Trainer · Competitive staple Ultra Rare Full Art Trainer ~$20–$35 Playability drives demand WATCH
8
Mega Floette exSIR — Set narrative focal point ★ SIR SIR ~$45–$70 AZ story connection helps long-term HOLD
All prices from eBay completed/sold listings, June 2026. For live tracking: PriceCharting.com
Deep Dives

Top 4 Chaos Rising Cards — Full Analysis

The four cards driving the most market activity — what they are, why they matter, and whether to buy now or wait.

01
Mega Greninja ex SIR
The Year's Top Chase Card
eBay Sold (June 2026)
$470–$505
Day-1 peak: $594 · Settled 48 hrs later
Current Range
$470–$505
Day-1 Peak
$594
PSA 10 Est.
$800–$1,200
SIR Pull Rate
~1:1,000 packs
Greninja Rank
Top 3 globally
Artist
Susumu Maeya
The most-wanted Pokémon TCG card of the year so far. Greninja consistently ranks top-3 in global Pokémon popularity polls, and the SIR artwork by Susumu Maeya is genuinely outstanding — the final card of a connected three-card panorama spanning Froakie → Frogadier → Mega Greninja ex, washing from deep ocean blue into a pink and orange sunset sky with a Greninja silhouette barely visible below. Collectors who complete the triptych have a display piece that stands out.

The price peaked at $594 on day one and settled to $470–$505 within 48 hours — a textbook release-week spike. The $470 floor is a far cleaner entry than the day-1 peak. PSA 10 projections of $800–$1,200 are conservative relative to how Mega Lucario ex SIR performed post-grade from Ascended Heroes. If Greninja's competitive playability holds up through Pitch Black's meta, there's a viable path to this card holding $500+ long term.
Verdict: Buy. The peak is behind you. Current $470–$505 represents a normal post-release correction. Buy the SIR if you're a collector or a patient investor — don't buy multiples speculating on a continued rise. One raw copy for grading consideration is the play.
Buy Greninja ex SIR → eBay Sold Comps →
02
Mega Greninja ex
Hyper Rare Gold
eBay Sold (June 2026)
$330–$485
Rarest card in the set · ~1:1,786 packs
Current Range
$330–$485
Pull Rate
~1:1,786
Packs/Box
36
Boxes to Pull 1
~49.6 boxes
Type
Mega Hyper Rare
Card #
#122/086
The rarest card in Chaos Rising and the one most collectors will never pull. At ~1:1,786 packs, statistically you'd need to open nearly 50 booster boxes to expect a single copy — that's roughly $15,350 in sealed product at current secondary prices. The buy-the-single math is beyond obvious.

The price range of $330–$485 overlaps meaningfully with the SIR, creating an unusual situation where the rarer card is slightly cheaper at the low end. That's a signal the market hasn't fully priced the pull rate discrepancy in yet. From a pure scarcity standpoint, the Hyper Rare has stronger long-term upside — lower supply ceiling, same Greninja demand driver.
Verdict: Buy — long-term hold. The scarcity math is compelling. If you're buying one Chaos Rising card to put away for 3–5 years, this is the one. Rarer than the SIR at a comparable or lower current price.
Buy Greninja Hyper Rare → eBay Sold Comps →
03
AZ's Tranquility
The Most Emotionally Resonant Card in ME04
eBay Sold (June 2026)
~$120–$180
Long-term collector demand expected
Current Range
$120–$180
Rarity
SIR
Card Type
Supporter
Storyline
Pokémon X & Y
Story Hook
AZ + Floette Reunion
Playability
Moderate
The card that hits differently if you've played Pokémon X and Y. AZ is one of the most tragic figures in the entire Pokémon franchise — an ancient king who built a superweapon to save his Floette, only to watch it leave him because of what he'd done. The SIR depicts that reunion: AZ finally reunited with his Floette after 3,000 years. For collectors with any connection to the X/Y era, this card carries emotional weight that no amount of pull-rate math can fully price.

Emotionally resonant Trainer SIRs tend to hold value better than character-neutral ones. The card is the most story-driven piece of Chaos Rising, and the Mega Floette ex theme running through the whole set makes AZ's Tranquility the narrative capstone. Collector-first buy, not speculative flip.
Verdict: Buy to hold. Not a flip card — a long-term keeper. The X/Y nostalgia demographic will want this for a long time. Priced reasonably relative to Greninja; this is the dark horse appreciation candidate of the set.
Buy AZ's Tranquility SIR → eBay Sold Comps →
04
Cinccino ex SIR
The Set's Breakout Card
eBay Sold (June 2026)
~$109
Early market — verify current comps
Current Price
~$109
Expected
~$50–$70
Premium vs Expected
~+55%
Type
SIR
Pokémon Fan Base
Strong Niche
Signal
WATCH
Nobody expected Cinccino to be the breakout SIR of Chaos Rising — and yet here we are. Cinccino has a dedicated and vocal fan base that over-indexes on collector products, and the SIR artwork has been well received. The card came out of prerelease events at a premium over what the market expected for a non-Mega SIR, and that premium has held.

The risk here is the opposite of Greninja — Cinccino is riding genuine fan energy, but that energy can also dissipate once the release hype window closes. If you already like Cinccino, this is worth buying as a collector card. As a pure investment, wait and see whether the price holds through week three.
Verdict: Watch / Collector Buy. Already performing well above baseline SIR expectations. Fan energy is real but hard to price. If you love Cinccino, buy it. If you're speculating, give it two more weeks to see where it settles.
Buy Cinccino SIR → eBay Sold Comps →
Gameplay

Unstable Evolution — The New Mega Mechanic

Chaos Rising reintroduces Mega Evolution to the TCG with a new twist that changes how competitive play works. Here's what you need to know.

How Unstable Evolution Works

When you evolve a Pokémon ex into its Mega form, your turn does not end automatically — unlike the original Mega Evolution rule from the XY era. Instead, you flip a coin. On heads, the evolution is clean and play continues normally. On tails, the evolution still resolves, but there's a consequence.

This creates a genuine risk/reward dynamic that has made Mega Evolution decks viable but volatile. Japanese Ninja Spinner tournament data shows Mega Greninja ex showing up in top cuts when the deck runs smoothly, but coin flip variance introduces a ceiling on consistency.

For collectors who don't play the game, the competitive relevance of Mega Greninja ex and the Unstable Evolution mechanic directly supports sealed product demand — competitive players ripping boxes to build decks means faster sell-through of sealed inventory, which supports secondary market prices.

⚠️ PRIZE CARD RULE: Every Mega Evolution Pokémon ex in this set (Pyroar ex #015, Greninja ex #022, Floette ex #035, Gallade ex #048, Dragalge ex #065) gives the opponent 3 prize cards when KO'd, not 2 like a regular ex. This is a major deckbuilding constraint and affects how all Mega ex cards are played competitively.
Set Composition

Chaos Rising — Card Breakdown by Rarity

86 base cards + 36 secret rares = 122 total. The English set added 3 cards not in Japanese Ninja Spinner (Mega Gallade ex, Krookodile ex, Adversity Policy).

Mega Evolution Pokémon ex
5 Mega ex
Greninja · Pyroar · Floette · Gallade · Dragalge
Regular Pokémon ex
4 Pokémon ex
Beedrill ex · Gourgeist ex · Krookodile ex · Cinccino ex
Illustration Rares
11 IRs
Ho-Oh · Keldeo · Xerneas · Chespin · Crobat · Tauros · Froakie · Frogadier + more
Special Illustration Rares
6 SIRs
Mega Greninja ex · Mega Floette ex · Mega Dragalge ex · AZ's Tranquility · Cinccino ex + 1 more
Ultra Rares
18 UltraRares
Full-art Pokémon ex + Full-art Trainers incl. Special Red Card
Mega Hyper Rare
1 Card
Mega Greninja ex #122/086 · Gold finish · ~1:1,786 packs
Trainer Cards
20+ Trainers
Includes competitive staples. Special Red Card is the playable chase.
Master Set
198 Cards
Includes 76 reverse holofoils + 36 secret rares on top of base 86
🇬🇧 English Exclusive Additions: The English Chaos Rising set includes three cards not found in the Japanese Ninja Spinner: Mega Gallade ex (from Japan's Jan 2026 Mega Gallade ex Special Set), Krookodile ex, and Adversity Policy (both from Nov 2025 JP gym promos). All three are numbered into the main set — not added as unnumbered promos. English collectors got more than Japanese collectors did.
Buy Guide

Sealed Product — What to Buy and What to Skip

Booster boxes at $307 secondary break the EV math. Here's the honest breakdown by format.

36 Packs · 10 Cards/Pack
Booster Box
~$307
At $307 secondary, the expected value of pulling a Greninja SIR (1:1,000 packs = ~1:27.8 boxes) doesn't justify the box cost. Buying the single directly at $470–$505 is a cleaner transaction than buying ~27 boxes at $307 hoping for one. Skip the box unless you're a collector who enjoys opening.
Search on eBay →
Best Value · 11 Packs + Promo
Pokémon Center ETB
$180–$200
Sold out immediately at MSRP. Secondary at $180–$200 is elevated but the stamped Greninja promo card adds collector appeal beyond the packs. If you want to open something and have a physical product to show for it, this is the format. More fun per dollar than a booster box at current prices.
Search on eBay →
Standard · 9 Packs
Regular ETB
~$113–$120
MSRP $49.99, so secondary at $113–$120 is a 126–140% premium. The same advice applies as the booster box — if you need to crack something, this is your cheapest format. But the singles math still wins on target cards.
Search on eBay →
Best ROI Pick
Buy Singles
Always Wins
If your goal is to own specific cards, eBay singles are always the better math at secondary sealed prices. Buy the Greninja SIR, buy the Hyper Rare, buy AZ's Tranquility — and skip the variance tax of opening sealed product hoping to pull them.
Browse Singles on eBay →
⚠️ Budget Planning Note: Pitch Black releases July 17, 2026 — just 7 weeks after Chaos Rising. Committing $1,400–$1,600 to complete a Chaos Rising master set at premium tier leaves less capital for Pitch Black's Mega Darkrai ex and supporting chase cards. Pace your buying accordingly.
What to Skip

Chaos Rising Cards to Pass On

Booster boxes at $307 for EV chasing — You need ~27.8 boxes to statistically expect one Greninja SIR. That's $8,535 in sealed product for a card you can buy for $470–$505 today. The sealed EV math does not work at secondary prices.
Mega Pyroar ex SIR at inflated prices — Pyroar has a fan base but it's smaller than Greninja's. The SIR was appropriately valued heading in and hasn't broken out. A fine card to collect at fair value; avoid paying Greninja-level premiums for it.
Day-one flips on release weekend — The Greninja SIR peaked at $594 and settled to $470–$505 inside 48 hours. The release-week premium window is closed. Don't buy multiples hoping for another spike — the correction already happened.
Reverse holofoils of common Pokémon at elevated prices — Reverse holo Froakie and reverse holo Fennekin got briefly listed at absurd prices during prerelease excitement. Both have normalized. Don't pay premium for non-chase reverses.
Sealing Chaos Rising product as a long-term hold — With Pitch Black 7 weeks out and a 30th anniversary set still upcoming, collector attention will shift quickly. Sealed product appreciation timelines are compressing in 2026 with the dense release calendar.

Chaos Rising Price Alerts

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