⚠️ Released May 22, 2026. This set is fresh and prices are still settling — every figure below is an approximate market level as of June 2026 (Mega Greninja comp re-checked Aug 10, 2026: PriceCharting ungraded $212, PSA 10 $650). Verify against current sold comps before buying. Tap "eBay" for live listings.
The Rainbow
Rarity & Chaos Holo
What makes Chaos Rising distinct is the Chaos Holo texture — a launch-exclusive finish on the set's six SIRs. Here's how the rarity tiers stack up.
Chaos Holo SIR
6 cards
Launch-exclusive texture; the premium chase
Mega Evolution ex
5
Greninja, Floette, Dragalge, Gallade, Pyroar
Special Illustration Rare
Top tier
Full-art chase across the set
Illustration Rare
Mid tier
Gradable art cards; accessible demand
Double Rare (ex)
Playable
The competitive/bulk ex layer
Base / Commons
Bulk
Heavily printed; minimal singles value
The Math
Box ROI & Pull Rates
Mega Greninja ex hits roughly 1 in 1,786 packs. At ~36 packs a box and ~$307 secondary, the statistical cost to pull the Greninja SIR runs into the thousands — which is exactly why singles beat sealed for the chase. Booster boxes are a fun rip and a set-build, not an EV play. Run your own scenario with the calculator.
Where to Buy
Sealed Product
MSRP if you can get it; otherwise weigh secondary against just buying the card.
Best ROI · Lock In at MSRP
Booster Box at MSRP
$179.99
If Fanatics or your LCS has allocation at the $179.99 MSRP, that's the move — secondary already runs ~$307. Open what you want and sell the rest sealed.
Booster Box on eBay →
The Rip · Secondary
Booster Box (Market)
~$307
36 packs. At ~$307 secondary the EV is negative before the first pack — fun rip and set-build, not an investment. Wait for prices to soften post-launch if you can.
Booster Box on eBay →
Target the Chase
Mega Greninja ex Single
~$210–$240 ▼
The efficient way to own the headline card without the box variance. Buy the exact SIR, grade if it's clean, done.
Greninja on eBay →
Watch List
Variables That Move This Set
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Print Run / Reprints
Chaos Rising's moderate launch print kept secondary elevated. If it gets heavy retailer allocation, sealed prices compress fast within weeks. Watch Fanatics restock cadence as the print-run signal.
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Greninja Demand
Everything keys off Greninja. A top-tier fan favorite with competitive relevance gives the SIR two demand drivers collector-only cards lack. The set's primary price engine.
◧ MEDIUM
Mega Evolution Set Cadence
With Pitch Black and more Mega sets in the pipeline, collector capital rotates quickly. Sealed appreciation windows are compressing across 2026. Hold cards, not boxes.
Avoid
What to Skip
✗Sealed at $307 secondary as a hold — negative EV the moment you buy. Wait for the post-launch correction or buy at MSRP only.
✗Multiple Greninja SIRs to flip — Pokémon SIR flip windows are short and the market corrects fast. One to collect or grade is rational; three to speculate is not.
✗Non-chase SIRs at launch hype — Gallade and Floette will see launch-week inflation. Their settled prices reflect their relative demand; don't overpay.
✗Bulk and commons — heavily printed, minimal value. The set is a top-tier chase or nothing.
Keep Going
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