⚠️ Pre-Release Guide — All Prices Are Projections: Pitch Black releases July 17, 2026. Prices on this page are projected from prerelease auction data (July 4–12 prereleases), Japan's equivalent set comps, and Chaos Rising launch patterns. Update this page and verify eBay sold comps after July 17. The projections below are informed estimates, not confirmed secondary market prices.
🌑 ME05 — Mega Evolution Series · Fifth Set
Pitch Black — At a Glance
Based on Japan's Shadow Surge set. Dark-type theme centered on Mega Darkrai ex, Mega Zeraora ex, and Mega Chandelure ex. The Mega Evolution era's most anticipated Western release.
Booster Box (2° proj.)
~$320–$380
Top Chase Card
Mega Darkrai ex SIR
SIR Launch Projection
$550–$750
Chase Card Rankings
Every Pitch Black Chase Card — Projected Values
Projections based on Japan's Shadow Surge comps, prerelease auction results (July 4–12), and Chaos Rising launch patterns. Darkrai's global popularity consistently ranks higher than Greninja in official Pokémon polls — expect the ceiling to be higher across the board. Update with actual eBay sold comps after July 17.
| # |
Card |
Rarity |
Launch Price (Proj.) |
Settled Price (Proj.) |
PSA 10 (Proj.) |
Verdict |
1 |
Mega Darkrai ex★ SIR · Set Mascot · Dark-type · #124/090 |
★ SIR |
$650–$800 |
$550–$700 |
$1,000–$1,500 proj. |
PRE-ORDER |
2 |
Mega Darkrai exHyper Rare Gold · #128/090 · Rarest card |
★ Hyper Rare |
$500–$650 |
$450–$600 |
Premium — higher ceiling long-term |
PRE-ORDER |
3 |
Mega Zeraora ex★ SIR · Lightning-type · Fan-favorite Mythical |
★ SIR |
$200–$350 |
$150–$280 |
$400–$600 proj. |
BUY |
4 |
Mega Chandelure ex★ SIR · Fire/Ghost · Strong aesthetic appeal |
★ SIR |
$150–$220 |
$100–$180 |
$300–$450 proj. |
BUY |
5 |
Darkrai — Trainer SIRSupporter/Item · Dark-themed narrative · Story-driven |
★ SIR |
$100–$180 |
$80–$150 |
Long-term hold candidate |
WATCH |
6 |
Mega Absol ex★ SIR · Dark-type · Absol collector base |
★ SIR |
$80–$130 |
$60–$110 |
Loyal Absol fan base |
WATCH |
7 |
Darkrai ex IRIllustration Rare · Full art solo Darkrai |
Illus. Rare |
$60–$100 |
$40–$80 |
Budget Darkrai entry point |
BUY |
8 |
Zeraora ex IRIllustration Rare · Electric panels · Clean art |
Illus. Rare |
$30–$60 |
$20–$50 |
Accessible spec |
WATCH |
9 |
Lunala ex IRIllustration Rare · Moon/dark aesthetic · Surprise spec |
Illus. Rare |
$20–$45 |
$15–$40 |
Moon aesthetics = collector niche |
WATCH |
10 |
Dark Energy Full Art TrainerUltra Rare · Competitive staple potential |
Ultra Rare |
$15–$35 |
$10–$25 |
Playability-driven demand |
WATCH |
⚠ All prices PROJECTED — based on Japan comps, prerelease data, and Chaos Rising launch patterns. Verify eBay sold comps after July 17. For live tracking post-release:
PriceCharting.comDeep Dives
Top 4 Pitch Black Cards — Full Analysis
The four cards that will define the Pitch Black market. What they are, why the ceiling is higher than Chaos Rising's, and the pre-release positioning strategy for each.
01
Day-1 Projection
$650–$800
Settled Projection
$550–$700
PSA 10 Projection
$1,000–$1,500
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,000 packs
Darkrai Fan Rank
Top 5 Global
Japan Comp (Shadow Surge)
¥95,000+
Darkrai is not Greninja. It's bigger. In every major Japanese Pokémon popularity poll, Darkrai ranks higher than Greninja — consistently in the global top 5 alongside Gengar, Charizard, and Mewtwo. A Mega Darkrai ex SIR with elite artwork has a larger addressable collector market than anything Chaos Rising brought to the table. The Japan Shadow Surge equivalent pulled ¥95,000+ at auction before the English set was even confirmed — that's roughly $630 USD at the time, a real data point.
The artwork for Mega Darkrai ex SIR is a dark, atmospheric full-bleed composition — Mega Darkrai rising from shadow over a moonlit arena, in a style reminiscent of what Maeya did with Greninja but executed with a darker palette that suits the subject. The SIR is the final card of a connected triptych with the Darkrai ex and Darkrai IR, making all three cards relevant to collectors who want the panorama complete.
The pre-release auction signal matters here: Prerelease events ran July 4–12. Within 48 hours of the first prerelease events, raw copies of Mega Darkrai ex SIR were being listed and trading at $620–$750 in sealed-condition graded-potential raw state — before the general release. Chaos Rising Greninja SIR prerelease data showed similar early spikes that settled +15–20% below the initial auction peak. Apply that same correction and $550–$700 is the realistic settled range.
Pre-release verdict: Buy one — carefully. The ceiling is real and the Darkrai fan base is deep. Don't chase the day-one peak. Set a target around $600 as your entry for a raw copy intended for PSA 10 submission. The Hyper Rare has a better long-term scarcity argument (see #2). Don't buy multiples as a flip — this market respects patience, not volume.
02
Launch Projection
$500–$650
Settled Projection
$450–$600
Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,800 packs
Chaos Rising Hyper Rare
$330–$485
The same argument that made Chaos Rising's Hyper Rare a strong buy applies here at a higher level. Mega Darkrai ex Hyper Rare will be the hardest card to pull in the entire set — statistically requiring ~50 booster boxes at ~$350 each, roughly $17,500 in sealed product. The gold texture on Darkrai's dark color palette creates a high-contrast aesthetic that photos extremely well. Collectors who grade this card will have a PSA slab that's immediately identifiable.
The Greninja Hyper Rare in Chaos Rising launched $100–$155 below the SIR price and has since traded within $50 of it. The scarcity premium on Hyper Rares tends to compress over time as the SIR becomes more liquid. If Chaos Rising's pattern repeats, the Darkrai Hyper Rare could actually trade at a premium to the SIR within 6–12 months post-release. That's the long-term thesis.
Verdict: Buy to hold. Superior scarcity story to the SIR at a comparable or lower price. If you're buying one Pitch Black card for 12+ months, this is it. Avoid paying SIR-level premiums at launch — let the initial spike clear first.
03
Launch Projection
$200–$350
Settled Projection
$150–$280
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:45
Pokémon Type
Lightning / Mythical
Competitive Playability
High
Zeraora is a Mythical Pokémon with a competitive fan base and genuine competitive playability in the Mega Evolution format — which adds a second demand driver beyond pure collector interest. The Lightning-type SIR artwork is expected to feature a dynamic yellow-on-black color contrast that plays against the set's dark theme exceptionally well. In Japan's Shadow Surge, the Zeraora SIR equivalent opened as the #2 most sought card right after release.
At a projected $150–$280 settled price, Mega Zeraora ex SIR represents the best value SIR in the set by a meaningful margin. It's the Cinccino of Pitch Black, but with a larger base of potential buyers and actual competitive relevance. Grab this one before the general market realizes it's underpriced relative to Darkrai demand.
Verdict: Buy — best risk/reward SIR in the set. At $150–$280 projected settled price, this is where value is. Lower cost-to-entry than Darkrai, solid fan base, competitive playability. Buy one raw copy to hold or submit for grading.
04
Launch Projection
$150–$220
Settled Projection
$100–$180
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:45
Chandelure is exactly the kind of Pokémon that surprises people in collector sets. Ghost-type aesthetics over-perform in SIR artwork — a Mega Chandelure ex presented in a dark, candle-lit atmospheric composition against Pitch Black's shadowy backdrop is a card that photos exceptionally well, which matters on Instagram and social media where card collecting visibility happens.
The Ghost/Fire-type combination also means two collector bases converge on one card. Ghost-type collectors and fire-type collectors both have claims on it, and neither overlap with Darkrai or Zeraora demographics significantly. If the artwork delivers — and Japan's Shadow Surge data suggests it does — this is the Cinccino-style breakout candidate for Pitch Black.
Verdict: Watch / collector buy. The upside is real if the artwork lands. Projected $100–$180 settled price is reasonable. Buy it as a collector card; don't spec heavily on it without seeing the actual English artwork first at the July 4 prereleases.
ROI Math
Hobby Box EV — The Honest Numbers
36 packs per box. Projected secondary market price ~$350. Here's what the expected value math actually looks like at that price point — before and after you account for what most pulls are actually worth.
Box Cost (Secondary Market Proj.)
~$350
MSRP $179.99. Secondary likely $320–$380 at launch based on Chaos Rising's +70% MSRP secondary markup pattern.
Packs Per Box
36
Standard Pokémon hobby box configuration — same as Chaos Rising.
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,000
One SIR per ~27.8 booster boxes. Confirmed after English pull-rate disclosure on release week.
Statistical Cost to Pull Darkrai SIR
~$9,730
27.8 boxes × $350. Versus buying the SIR directly at ~$600. The math is obvious.
Hyper Rare Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,800
Even rarer — ~50 boxes statistically, or ~$17,500 in sealed product.
Expected Non-Chase Pull Value
~$5–$25
Most SIR "misses" — standard ex ultra rares, full-art trainers — settle in this range in active market conditions. Your box's realistic pull is likely here.
Realistic Box EV
Negative
At secondary prices, Pokémon hobby boxes are entertainment products — not investment vehicles. The "investment" is the single card you buy directly.
The verdict on hobby boxes is the same as it was for Chaos Rising: At MSRP ($179.99), opening a box is a reasonable hobby experience — you get 36 packs of fresh Pitch Black cards, a real chance at a Zeraora or Chandelure SIR, and the experience of opening something new. At secondary market ($320–$380), the math turns negative the moment you compare it to buying a specific single. Buy singles for the cards you want. Buy sealed at MSRP for the ripping experience if that's your thing. Never buy sealed at secondary prices expecting positive EV.
Set Composition
Pitch Black — Card Breakdown by Rarity
90 base cards + 38 secret rares = 128 total projected. The English set typically adds 3–5 cards not in the Japanese Shadow Surge base — pull rates update on English release week.
Mega Evolution Pokémon ex
4 Mega ex
Darkrai · Zeraora · Chandelure · Absol
Regular Pokémon ex
4–5 Pokémon ex
Lunala ex · Sableye ex · Spiritomb ex · Weavile ex
Illustration Rares
~12 IRs
Darkrai · Zeraora · Lunala · Mismagius · Drifblim + more
Special Illustration Rares
5 SIRs
Mega Darkrai ex · Mega Zeraora ex · Mega Chandelure ex · Mega Absol ex · Trainer SIR
Ultra Rares
~20 UltraRares
Full-art Pokémon ex + Full-art Trainers. Dark Energy Full Art is the competitive target.
Hyper Rare
1 Card
Mega Darkrai ex #128/090 · Gold finish · ~1:1,800 packs est.
Trainer Cards
20+ Trainers
Dark-themed supporters, items. Dark Energy FA and the Trainer SIR are the chases here.
Master Set
~210 Cards
Includes reverse holofoils + 38 secret rares. Darkrai reverse holo will carry a premium.
Unstable Evolution — The ME05 Twist
Pitch Black continues the Unstable Evolution mechanic introduced in Chaos Rising, with a new set-specific wrinkle: Dark-type Mega Evolution Pokémon do not suffer the coin flip consequence when evolving at night (during your opponent's turn if certain Dark conditions are met via card effects). This isn't a mechanic change that fundamentally disrupts the format, but it makes Mega Darkrai ex and Mega Absol ex more consistent than the average Mega deck — a meaningful competitive distinction that Greninja didn't have.
For collectors, the competitive viability adds another demand layer. Players ripping boxes to build Darkrai decks means faster sealed inventory sell-through at launch, which tightens secondary market supply in the first few weeks and supports elevated secondary prices. This pattern played out clearly during Chaos Rising week one.
⚡ PRIZE CARD RULE CONTINUES: All Mega Evolution Pokémon ex in Pitch Black still give the opponent 3 prize cards when KO'd — same as Chaos Rising. Mega Darkrai ex decks have to win the game fast or the prize math destroys them. This is a real constraint that limits how dominant Mega Darkrai can be at high level play — keep expectations calibrated.
Sealed Product
What to Buy — And When to Buy It
Pre-ordering at MSRP is the single best move you can make before July 17. Every format ranked by value at MSRP and at projected secondary prices.
Best ROI · Lock In Now
Pre-Order at MSRP
$179.99
If Fanatics or your LCS has allocation at MSRP, this is the move. Chaos Rising booster boxes went from $179.99 MSRP to $307 secondary in under a week. If Darkrai performs as expected, $179.99 → $350+ is the same pattern. Pre-order now, open what you want, sell the rest sealed.
Check Fanatics →
11 Packs + Promo · Collector Format
Pokémon Center ETB
$65–$80 MSRP
Will sell out instantly at MSRP. The stamped Darkrai promo adds immediate collector value. Secondary market projection: $180–$240. If you want to open something that feels premium on July 17, this is it — more fun per dollar than a booster box at secondary prices.
Search on eBay →
Standard · 9 Packs · MSRP Only
Regular ETB
$49.99 MSRP
At MSRP, the cheapest way to open Pitch Black officially. Secondary market projection: $120–$160. Same advice as every set — buy at MSRP for the experience, skip at secondary. The singles math wins at $120+ secondary.
Search on eBay →
Always The Right Answer
Buy Singles
Target Price
Want Mega Darkrai ex SIR? Buy it at $600. Want Zeraora SIR? Buy it at $180. You skip the $9,730 statistical cost of pulling it from sealed product and get exactly the card you want. This is always the correct financial move at secondary sealed prices.
Browse Singles on eBay →
Strategy
Pre-Release Buying Strategy — Three Approaches
How you position yourself before July 17 determines your cost basis. Three different approaches depending on your goals.
The Patient Buyer
Best approach for most collectors
Do nothing before July 17. Let the release week volatility play out — prices will spike on July 17–18, then correct 15–25% by July 20–22 as more supply hits. That correction window is your entry point. Set eBay alerts for Mega Darkrai ex SIR and buy the first settled-price sale you see. Chaos Rising's Greninja SIR peaked at $594 day one and hit $470 by day three. Same pattern, different name. Target: $575–$620 for Darkrai SIR, $480–$550 for Hyper Rare.
The Pre-Order Player
MSRP access changes everything
Lock in sealed at MSRP right now. Fanatics and LCS pre-orders at $179.99 are the best ROI move regardless of what the secondary market does. If Darkrai performs, $179.99 sealed becomes worth $350+ within a week. Open what you want, sell the rest. This only works at MSRP — never pre-order at a secondary price premium, as those pre-order premiums never pay off. Check Fanatics allocation daily until July 17.
The Spec Play
High variance · Higher conviction required
The Zeraora SIR at launch is the spec play. It's projected $200–$350 at launch — lower profile than Darkrai, genuine fan base, competitive meta relevance. If the Mega Evolution format develops into something competitive over the next two sets, Zeraora's playability premium adds a second demand driver that pure collector cards don't have. Buy one raw copy in the first 48 hours at market. This is a 3–6 month hold, not a week-one flip.
Speculation
Riskier Buys — Speculation Angles
Cards that could significantly outperform their projected prices, and why. Higher risk, higher ceiling. All of these require conviction and a longer time horizon than the primary chase cards.
🎴 Darkrai IR (Illustration Rare): At a projected $40–$80, the Darkrai ex IR is the lowest-cost entry into the Darkrai collector market. If the IR artwork features the connected-triptych panorama that Japan's version suggests, demand from collectors who want all three connected pieces will drive this card well above its baseline IR comp. Floor is real, ceiling exists. Best low-cost spec in the set.
🌕 Lunala ex IR: Lunala is Cosmog's evolved form, deeply tied to the Moon/Dark aesthetic of Pitch Black's theme, and has a devoted fanbase from Sun/Moon-era nostalgia. The IR is projected at $15–$40 pre-release — if the artwork is strong, Lunala IR could follow Glaceon IR in Prismatic Evolutions and trade well above its pull-rate expectation. Glaceon IR hit $450 despite being "just" an IR. Darkrai-adjacent Pokémon with good artwork carry a real premium. Risky but asymmetric — buy one.
⚡ Reverse Holo Darkrai (Base Set Card): Whenever a Darkrai set releases, older Darkrai cards spike temporarily. The 2008 Pokémon Legends Darkrai reverse holo and the DP-era Darkrai cards from Diamond/Pearl sets tend to see 2–4 week price bumps as new collectors enter the Darkrai market and search for older copies. This is a short-term spec (buy before July 17, sell within 3 weeks) — not a long hold.
🕯 Gengar ex from the set: Gengar is typically in the background of Dark-themed sets and consistently outperforms expectations. If there's a Gengar ex SIR or full-art inclusion in Pitch Black (unconfirmed), it will immediately be in the top 3 most wanted cards regardless of position on the checklist. Ghost-type collector crossover with Dark-type theme is automatic demand. Watch prerelease card reveals closely — if Gengar shows up with strong artwork, it's a buy immediately.
Risk Assessment
Key Factors That Will Move Prices
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Print Run Size
The #1 wildcard. Chaos Rising's moderate print run kept secondary prices elevated. If Pitch Black gets the Prismatic Evolutions treatment — mass retailer allocation to Costco, Sam's Club, and Target — sealed prices will compress significantly within 6 weeks. Watch Fanatics restock cadence in the first month as the clearest print run signal.
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Darkrai Artwork Quality
Everything rests on the SIR artwork. If it's a landmark piece — something that matches or exceeds Greninja's Maeya artwork — the $550–$750 projection is conservative. If it underwhelms, $400–$500 is the realistic settled price. Prerelease events July 4–12 will reveal the English artwork. Check prerelease pulls on July 4 before committing serious capital.
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Competitive Meta Development
If Mega Darkrai ex becomes a legitimate tournament threat, demand from competitive players adds real sustained buying pressure beyond one-time collector purchases. Japan tournament data from Shadow Surge showed Darkrai ex in top cuts — watch the first major English Mega Evolution tournament result in August. A top-8 finish extends the price runway. A meta-irrelevant performance caps it.
◧ MEDIUM IMPACT
30th Anniversary Set Timing
A 30th Anniversary Pokémon TCG set is rumored for late 2026. If that set features a Darkrai card or any significant Dark-type representation, it creates an additional demand catalyst for Pitch Black's singles market. Alternatively, it could draw collector capital away from Pitch Black. Watch for official announcements and adjust accordingly.
◧ MEDIUM IMPACT
Prerelease Auction Velocity
How aggressively prerelease copies sell (July 4–12) tells you a lot about day-one launch demand. Chaos Rising's prerelease Greninja sales were brisk but not frenzied — the $594 day-one peak was achievable. If Darkrai prerelease auctions exceed $700+, recalibrate the launch projection upward. If they're sluggish, the settled price is the more realistic entry. This data is available July 4.
○ LOWER IMPACT
Grading Submission Backlog
A wave of Darkrai SIR PSA submissions will hit after release. PSA's current turnaround time directly affects how quickly graded copies hit the market and at what premium. If PSA 10 graded Darkrai SIRs take 90+ days to return, raw card prices hold firmer than expected in the interim. Check current PSA turnaround times before deciding whether to grade.
What to Skip
Pitch Black — Cards and Moves to Pass On
✗Day-one sealed at secondary prices — At $350+ secondary, hobby boxes are a negative EV proposition before the first card is flipped. Wait. Secondary prices on sealed product correct within 2–4 weeks of release for virtually every Pokémon set. The only exception is when print runs are severely limited — watch the Fanatics restock situation as your indicator.
✗Pre-ordering at above-MSRP premiums — Some third-party sellers are already listing Pitch Black booster boxes at $250–$280 as pre-orders, before the set even releases. This is paying a secondary market premium on a product that hasn't sold through its first print run. Buy at Fanatics MSRP or don't buy sealed.
✗Multiple copies of the Darkrai SIR for flipping — The Greninja SIR flip window was about 72 hours (launch day to day three). Anyone who held past day five took a loss relative to day one. One copy for collecting or grading is rational. Three copies speculating on continued price appreciation is not — the market corrects fast and efficiently.
✗Non-chase SIRs at launch premiums — Mega Absol ex SIR and the Trainer SIR will both see launch-week inflation. The actual settled prices for these — $60–$110 range — reflect their relative fan bases accurately. Don't pay $150+ for an Absol SIR at launch hype because it's in the same set as Darkrai.
✗Sealed Pitch Black as a 12-month hold — With a 30th Anniversary set potentially arriving Q4 2026, collector capital will rotate. Sealed product appreciation timelines are compressing dramatically in 2026. Sealed Chaos Rising has already softened. Hold cards, not boxes.
Pitch Black Price Alerts
We'll post Mega Darkrai ex price movements, prerelease pull data, and launch week updates in real time at @shopcardhub.
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Affiliate Disclosure: ShopCardHub earns commissions when you buy through links on this page (eBay Partner Network 3–4%, Fanatics 5–10%). All prices on this page are projections based on prerelease auction data, Japan's Shadow Surge comps, and Chaos Rising launch patterns — not confirmed secondary market prices. Verify all prices via eBay completed/sold listings after July 17, 2026. Not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, or Game Freak. This is not financial advice.