Pitch Black is live — and the market rewrote the script in 72 hours. The Mega Darkrai ex SIR is at ~$225 on real sold volume, and the gold Mega Hyper Rare #120 collapsed from a thin ~$996 print to ~$183 — the brief scarcity-over-mascot inversion lasted days, not months. Full hobby box EV math, every chase card ranked with real solds, and the post-launch buying strategy.
📅 Released July 17, 2026💰 Live PriceCharting / TCGplayer Comps⭐ 6 SIRs · #114–119🌟 MHR inversion over — #120 back under the SIR🕐 Updated Aug 31, 2026
One point per night: the trimmed low-ask mark for this exact card (price + shipping, cheapest junk dropped). Asks proxy solds; the method is identical every night, so the shape is what matters.
Loading the nightly series…
What buyers paid
Auction closes the engine records itself. Hammer capture began in early September 2026 — this fills in as auctions for this card close.
No auction close recorded for this card yet.
Verified live listings
Only listings that pass the engine's exact-card filter — right code, right year, no graded slabs, parallels, lots or reprints. Cheapest first, price before shipping.
Marks are the engine's nightly reads from verified eBay asking prices and, where recorded, auction closes; dated, sourced, never hand-typed. Cards are illiquid — think in 6–12 month holds. ShopCardHub earns a commission on eBay purchases made through links on this page.
🌑 Now Live — Prices From Real Solds: Pitch Black released July 17, 2026. Darkrai prices on this page are from PriceCharting ungraded completed sales as of August 31, 2026 (current graded reads: Grade 9 $365, PSA 10 $1,664 per PriceCharting). Non-Darkrai rows now show LIVE eBay ASKING prices via our eBay API feed — the ask side of the market, clearly labeled, until enough solds exist. Launch-week markets are volatile; singles typically settle within 2–4 weeks of release.
🌑 ME05 — Mega Evolution Series · Fifth Set
Pitch Black — At a Glance
Based on Japan's Abyss Eye set (JP release May 22, 2026). Dark-type theme with six Mega ex — Darkrai, Zeraora, Chandelure, Excadrill, Delphox, and Slowbro. The Mega Evolution era's most anticipated Western release, now live.
Released
Jul 17, 2026
Set Numbering
/084 + secrets
Total Cards
120
Packs / Box
36
Booster Box MSRP
$179.99
Booster Box (2° proj.)
~$320–$380
ETB MSRP
$49.99
ETB (2° proj.)
~$120–$160
Top $ Card (Live)
MHR Darkrai ~$196
Darkrai SIR (Live)
~$225 · falling
SIRs in Set
6 · #114–119
Mega Hyper Rare
1 — Darkrai #120
Chase Card Rankings
Every Pitch Black Chase Card — Live Market vs Our Projections
The set is six weeks old (released Jul 17). Darkrai rows show real completed sales (PriceCharting, Aug 31). The headline: our pre-release call had the SIR at $550–$700 settled — it trades at ~$225 on real sold volume. The gold Hyper Rare's early inversion collapsed — ~$183 now, back under the SIR where the pattern usually sits. Non-Darkrai rows keep projections until enough solds exist — verify via the sold links before paying.
Ultra Rare Trainers & Items#104–113 · Dark Bell / Misty's Vitality / Crushing Hammer
Ultra Rare
$10–$25
Varies per card — projections stand
Playability-driven demand
WATCH
Live figures from PriceCharting / TCGplayer completed sales as of Aug 31, 2026. "Live asks" cells are active eBay asking prices (Browse API), refreshed on page load — asks, not solds. "Pre-Release Proj." = our pre-launch settled estimate, kept for accountability. Non-Darkrai comps still thin — always check the sold links before paying.
Deep Dives
Top 4 Pitch Black Cards — Full Analysis
The four cards defining the Pitch Black market, updated with the first 72 hours of real sold data. The short version: the SIR is correcting faster than the Chaos Rising pattern, and the Hyper Rare inverted the script entirely.
01
🌑 Special Illustration Rare · #116/084 · Dark-type
Mega Darkrai ex SIR The Year's Most Anticipated Chase Card
Live Market · Aug 31
~$225 ▼
33 raw solds · $360–$685 range · down $70 on the week
Live Raw (Aug 31)
~$225 ▼
Our Pre-Release Call
$550–$700
Graded (First Prints)
G9 $682 · G9.5 $750 · PSA 10 none
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,000 packs
Darkrai Fan Rank
Top 5 Global
JP Source Set
Abyss Eye · May 2026
Darkrai is not Greninja. It's bigger. In every major Japanese Pokémon popularity poll, Darkrai ranks higher than Greninja — consistently in the global top 5 alongside Gengar, Charizard, and Mewtwo. A Mega Darkrai ex SIR with elite artwork has a larger addressable collector market than anything Chaos Rising brought to the table. The Japanese Abyss Eye version has been out since May 22, 2026, so real JP sold comps exist — pull completed listings for the Abyss Eye Mega Darkrai SIR to anchor expectations before the English release.
The Mega Darkrai ex SIR is illustrated by Akira Egawa — one of the marquee artists behind the era's biggest SIR chases. It also anchors a deep Darkrai run in the set: base Double Rare #48, full-art Ultra Rare #101, this SIR #116, and the gold Mega Hyper Rare #120 — rainbow collectors will want all four.
What the chart actually says (Aug 31): from the $685 pre-release peak the SIR corrected through ~$455 (Jul 20) and ~$271 (Aug 10) to ~$225 today — six straight red weeks, all below our $550–$700 pre-release settled call. The slope has eased from roughly $60/week in the launch window to ~$15/week over the last three — decelerating, but still no green week printed. The candles are red until they aren't.
Verdict: Pass for now — one flat week isn't a bottom. The knife's fall: $455 (Jul 20) → $271 (Aug 10) → ~$225 (Aug 31) → $241 engine mark (Sep 6) — the first flat-to-green week has finally printed, and the engine reads HOLD. One flat week is a start, not a bottom: if a second week holds, that's the window for your one raw copy for the PSA 10 submission. The Hyper Rare's early premium story already broke (see #2) — neither card has printed a bottom yet. One copy, not multiples — the flip window already closed.
🌟 Mega Hyper Rare Gold · #120/084 · Rarest Card in Set
Mega Darkrai ex Hyper Rare Gold
Live Market · Aug 31
~$183 ▼
TCGplayer · already trading ABOVE the SIR
Live Raw (Aug 31)
~$183 ▼
Our Pre-Release Call
$450–$600
Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,800 packs
Boxes to Pull 1
~50 boxes
Chaos Rising Hyper Rare
$330–$485
Long-Term Hold
Strong
The same argument that made Chaos Rising's Hyper Rare a strong buy applies here at a higher level. Mega Darkrai ex Hyper Rare will be the hardest card to pull in the entire set — statistically requiring ~50 booster boxes at ~$350 each, roughly $17,500 in sealed product. The gold texture on Darkrai's dark color palette creates a high-contrast aesthetic that photos extremely well. Collectors who grade this card will have a PSA slab that's immediately identifiable.
We projected the SIR-premium flip would take 6–12 months, based on Chaos Rising's pattern. It took three days. The MHR printed ~$996 on thin TCGplayer volume against a ~$455 SIR — a 2.2x premium out of the gate. We flagged that read as thin, and it was: once real daily volume arrived, the MHR collapsed to ~$183, back UNDER the SIR (~$225). Supply caught up and then some — the scarcity thesis didn't survive contact with real volume. The open question now is where the floor is, not how high the premium goes.
Verdict: Hold if you have it; don't chase at $1,000 on thin data. The scarcity story played out faster than projected, but one-digit sales counts don't make a trend. If you pulled one, congratulations — grade it. If buying, wait for enough solds to confirm the level, or bid the dips toward $800.
⚡ Special Illustration Rare · #114/084 · Lightning-type · Mythical Pokémon
Mega Zeraora ex SIR The Best Value Chase in the Set
Settled Projection
$150–$280
Best value-to-fan-base ratio in ME05
Launch Projection
$200–$350
Settled Projection
$150–$280
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:45
Pokémon Type
Lightning / Mythical
Competitive Playability
High
Fan Base
Strong
Zeraora is a Mythical Pokémon with a competitive fan base and genuine competitive playability in the Mega Evolution format — which adds a second demand driver beyond pure collector interest. The yellow-on-black SIR artwork plays against the set's dark theme exactly as hoped. English comps are still thin three days in — JP Abyss Eye solds remain the better-populated anchor until eBay volume builds. Check the sold link below before paying launch-week asks.
At a projected $150–$280 settled price, Mega Zeraora ex SIR represents the best value SIR in the set by a meaningful margin. It's the Cinccino of Pitch Black, but with a larger base of potential buyers and actual competitive relevance. Grab this one before the general market realizes it's underpriced relative to Darkrai demand.
Verdict: Buy — best risk/reward SIR in the set. At $150–$280 projected settled price, this is where value is. Lower cost-to-entry than Darkrai, solid fan base, competitive playability. Buy one raw copy to hold or submit for grading.
Chandelure is exactly the kind of Pokémon that surprises people in collector sets. Ghost-type aesthetics over-perform in SIR artwork — a Mega Chandelure ex presented in a dark, candle-lit atmospheric composition against Pitch Black's shadowy backdrop is a card that photos exceptionally well, which matters on Instagram and social media where card collecting visibility happens.
The Ghost/Fire-type combination also means two collector bases converge on one card. Ghost-type collectors and fire-type collectors both have claims on it, and neither overlap with Darkrai or Zeraora demographics significantly. If the artwork delivers — and Japan's Abyss Eye reception suggests it does — this is the Cinccino-style breakout candidate for Pitch Black.
Verdict: Watch / collector buy. The artwork is out and it delivers. Our $100–$180 settled projection stands until enough English solds exist to confirm — check the sold link before paying launch-week premiums.
36 packs per box. Projected secondary market price ~$350. Here's what the expected value math actually looks like at that price point — before and after you account for what most pulls are actually worth.
Box Cost (Secondary Market Proj.)
~$350
MSRP $179.99. Secondary likely $320–$380 at launch based on Chaos Rising's +70% MSRP secondary markup pattern.
Packs Per Box
36
Standard Pokémon hobby box configuration — same as Chaos Rising.
SIR Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,000
One SIR per ~27.8 booster boxes. Confirmed after English pull-rate disclosure on release week.
Statistical Cost to Pull Darkrai SIR
~$9,730
27.8 boxes × $350. Versus buying the SIR directly at ~$225 live. The math is even more obvious now.
Hyper Rare Pull Rate (est.)
~1:1,800
Even rarer — ~50 boxes statistically, or ~$17,500 in sealed product.
Expected Non-Chase Pull Value
~$5–$25
Most SIR "misses" — standard ex ultra rares, full-art trainers — settle in this range in active market conditions. Your box's realistic pull is likely here.
Realistic Box EV
Negative
At secondary prices, Pokémon hobby boxes are entertainment products — not investment vehicles. The "investment" is the single card you buy directly.
The verdict on hobby boxes is the same as it was for Chaos Rising: At MSRP ($179.99), opening a box is a reasonable hobby experience — you get 36 packs of fresh Pitch Black cards, a real chance at a Zeraora or Chandelure SIR, and the experience of opening something new. At secondary market ($320–$380), the math turns negative the moment you compare it to buying a specific single. Buy singles for the cards you want. Buy sealed at MSRP for the ripping experience if that's your thing. Never buy sealed at secondary prices expecting positive EV.
Set Composition
Pitch Black — Card Breakdown by Rarity
84 main-set cards + 36 secret rares = 120 total, verified against the full English checklist (numbering runs /084 with secrets #85–120). The master set runs 204 with reverse holos.
Lurantis ex · Wailord ex · Rampardos ex · Morpeko ex
Illustration Rares
11 IRs · #85–95
Primarina · Silvally · Bastiodon · Toucannon + more
Special Illustration Rares
6 SIRs · #114–119
M Zeraora #114 · M Chandelure #115 · M Darkrai #116 · Morpeko #117 · Gladion's Final Battle #118 · Gwynn #119
Ultra Rares
18 URs · #96–113
Full-art ex (#96–103) + Trainer/Item URs (#104–113) — Dark Bell, Misty's Vitality, Crushing Hammer.
Mega Hyper Rare
1 Card
Mega Darkrai ex #120/084 · Gold finish · ~1:1,800 packs est.
Trainer Cards
20+ Trainers
Dark-themed supporters + items. The Gwynn and Gladion's Final Battle SIRs are the chases here.
Master Set
204 Cards
120 set cards + 84 reverse holos (secrets have no reverse). Darkrai reverse holo will carry a premium.
Unstable Evolution — The ME05 Twist
Pitch Black continues the Unstable Evolution mechanic introduced in Chaos Rising, with a new set-specific wrinkle: Dark-type Mega Evolution Pokémon do not suffer the coin flip consequence when evolving at night (during your opponent's turn if certain Dark conditions are met via card effects). This isn't a mechanic change that fundamentally disrupts the format, but it makes Mega Darkrai ex more consistent than the average Mega deck — a meaningful competitive distinction that Greninja didn't have.
For collectors, the competitive viability adds another demand layer. Players ripping boxes to build Darkrai decks means faster sealed inventory sell-through at launch, which tightens secondary market supply in the first few weeks and supports elevated secondary prices. This pattern played out clearly during Chaos Rising week one.
⚡ PRIZE CARD RULE CONTINUES: All Mega Evolution Pokémon ex in Pitch Black still give the opponent 3 prize cards when KO'd — same as Chaos Rising. Mega Darkrai ex decks have to win the game fast or the prize math destroys them. This is a real constraint that limits how dominant Mega Darkrai can be at high level play — keep expectations calibrated.
Sealed Product
What to Buy — And When to Buy It
The set is live — the MSRP window is closing as allocations sell through. Same rule as always: MSRP for the rip, singles for the card. Never sealed at secondary expecting positive EV.
Best ROI · If You Can Find It
Booster Box at MSRP
$179.99
If Fanatics or your LCS still has allocation at MSRP, it remains the only sealed buy that makes sense. Chaos Rising went $179.99 → $307 secondary in under a week; watch restock cadence — it's also your print-run signal.
Sold out at MSRP as expected. The stamped Darkrai promo carries immediate collector value — secondary is settling in the $180–$240 band. Still more fun per dollar than a booster box at secondary prices, but check solds before paying up.
At MSRP, the cheapest way to open Pitch Black officially. Secondary market projection: $120–$160. Same advice as every set — buy at MSRP for the experience, skip at secondary. The singles math wins at $120+ secondary.
Want Mega Darkrai ex SIR? It's ~$225 and still soft — let the trend flatten, then buy. You skip the $9,730 statistical cost of pulling it from sealed product and get exactly the card you want. Always the correct financial move at secondary sealed prices.
The launch spike happened; the correction is underway. How you position now determines your cost basis. Updated Jul 28.
The Patient Buyer
Best approach for most collectors
The correction we predicted is live — and still hasn't printed a bottom. The Darkrai SIR peaked at $685 pre-release and the Aug 31 mark is ~$225, with the weekly decline decelerating (~$15/week over the last three). Set eBay alerts and wait for the first flat week in the sold trend. Working entry zone: $185–$210 for the SIR if the current trend holds — the same discount-to-mark band as before, recalibrated to the $225 read. Recalibrate weekly off PriceCharting, not off asks.
The MSRP Hunter
The only sealed play left
MSRP or nothing. $179.99 boxes are the only sealed entry with positive expected outcome, and allocations are selling through. Fanatics restocks are your signal: frequent restocks = big print run = sealed prices compress (the Prismatic pattern); scarce restocks = the Chaos Rising pattern where secondary holds $300+. Never buy sealed at the current $320–$380 secondary — that premium is the house edge.
The Spec Play
High variance · Higher conviction required
Zeraora SIR is still the spec — and launch chaos is the entry. While all attention sits on Darkrai, the #114 SIR's comps are thin and asks are scattered. If the Mega Evolution format turns competitive over the next two sets, Zeraora's playability premium adds a demand driver pure collector cards don't have. Buy one raw copy on a weak ask; 3–6 month hold, not a flip.
Speculation
Riskier Buys — Speculation Angles
Cards that could significantly outperform their projected prices, and why. Higher risk, higher ceiling. All of these require conviction and a longer time horizon than the primary chase cards.
🎴 Mega Darkrai ex Ultra Rare (#101/084): At a projected $20–$50, the full-art Ultra Rare is the lowest-cost full-art entry into the Darkrai market. With four Darkrai cards in the set (base #48, UR #101, SIR #116, gold MHR #120), rainbow collectors need this copy — layered demand keeps the floor real while the SIR sets the ceiling. Best low-cost spec in the set.
🌕 Gwynn — Trainer SIR (#119/084): New trainer characters with strong SIR art have a habit of outrunning their projections once character collectors find them. Gwynn debuts in this set, projected $80–$150 — a thin initial supply of graded copies plus a new-character fanbase is exactly the setup that produces asymmetric moves. Risky but asymmetric — buy one.
⚡ Reverse Holo Darkrai (Base Set Card): Whenever a Darkrai set releases, older Darkrai cards spike temporarily. The 2008 Pokémon Legends Darkrai reverse holo and the DP-era Darkrai cards from Diamond/Pearl sets tend to see 2–4 week price bumps as new collectors enter the Darkrai market and search for older copies. The window opened Jul 17 — if you bought in, sell into it within the next 2–3 weeks. Too late to enter now.
🕯 Japanese Abyss Eye singles arbitrage: the JP set has been out since May 22, so JP copies of the same chase cards (Mega Darkrai SIR, Zeraora SIR) already trade with real price history — typically below English launch prices. If English launch premiums run hot, JP copies are the disciplined way to own the card while English prices settle. Confirmed: there is no Gengar in ME05 — don't chase that rumor.
Risk Assessment
Key Factors That Will Move Prices
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Print Run Size
The #1 wildcard. Chaos Rising's moderate print run kept secondary prices elevated. If Pitch Black gets the Prismatic Evolutions treatment — mass retailer allocation to Costco, Sam's Club, and Target — sealed prices will compress significantly within 6 weeks. Watch Fanatics restock cadence in the first month as the clearest print run signal.
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Darkrai Artwork Quality
The Egawa artwork is out and well-received — yet the SIR has fallen through the entire $550–$700 projection band to ~$225. That points to supply, not demand, as the price driver: early print volume is outrunning the collector bid. Art-driven demand couldn't hold even $300 against this supply — the print run is bigger than Chaos Rising's. Watch the weekly sold trend.
⬛ HIGH IMPACT
Competitive Meta Development
If Mega Darkrai ex becomes a legitimate tournament threat, demand from competitive players adds real sustained buying pressure beyond one-time collector purchases. Watch JP tournament results since Abyss Eye's May release, then the first major English Mega Evolution event in August. A top-8 finish extends the price runway. A meta-irrelevant performance caps it.
◧ MEDIUM IMPACT
30th Anniversary Set Timing
Confirmed: the 30th Celebration set lands September 16, 2026, with staggered products through December. No Darkrai in the revealed chase lineup — the risk now runs one way: anniversary hype pulls collector capital out of Pitch Black singles through Q4. If you're taking profits on Darkrai SIR, the pre–Sep 16 window is the move.
◧ MEDIUM IMPACT
Prerelease Auction Velocity
Resolved: prerelease auctions (Jul 4–12) peaked at $685 with steady but not frenzied velocity — and the post-launch tape confirmed the read, correcting through $455 by Jul 20. The signal now is sold-price slope, not auction velocity: the week the trend flattens on PriceCharting is the week the entry window opens.
○ LOWER IMPACT
Grading Submission Backlog
A wave of Darkrai SIR PSA submissions will hit after release. PSA's current turnaround time directly affects how quickly graded copies hit the market and at what premium. If PSA 10 graded Darkrai SIRs take 90+ days to return, raw card prices hold firmer than expected in the interim. Check current PSA turnaround times before deciding whether to grade.
What to Skip
Pitch Black — Cards and Moves to Pass On
✗
Day-one sealed at secondary prices — At $350+ secondary, hobby boxes are a negative EV proposition before the first card is flipped. Wait. Secondary prices on sealed product correct within 2–4 weeks of release for virtually every Pokémon set. The only exception is when print runs are severely limited — watch the Fanatics restock situation as your indicator.
✗
Sealed at above-MSRP premiums — Third-party sellers are asking $320–$380 for booster boxes three days post-launch. That premium is the house edge — sealed secondary corrects within 2–4 weeks on virtually every Pokémon set unless the print run is severely limited. Buy at Fanatics MSRP or don't buy sealed.
✗
Multiple copies of the Darkrai SIR for flipping — The Greninja SIR flip window was about 72 hours (launch day to day three). Anyone who held past day five took a loss relative to day one. One copy for collecting or grading is rational. Three copies speculating on continued price appreciation is not — the market corrects fast and efficiently.
✗
Non-chase SIRs at launch premiums — Morpeko ex SIR and the two Trainer SIRs (Gwynn, Gladion's Final Battle) are in launch-week inflation right now. The settled prices for these — roughly $60–$150 — reflect their fan bases accurately. Don't pay double at launch hype just because they share a set with Darkrai.
✗
Sealed Pitch Black as a 12-month hold — With the 30th Celebration set confirmed for Sep 16 (products staggered into December), collector capital will rotate. Sealed product appreciation timelines are compressing dramatically in 2026. Sealed Chaos Rising has already softened. Hold cards, not boxes.
Pitch Black Price Alerts
We'll post Mega Darkrai ex price movements, prerelease pull data, and launch week updates in real time at @shopcardhub.
Affiliate Disclosure: ShopCardHub earns commissions when you buy through links on this page (eBay Partner Network 3–4%). Darkrai prices are from PriceCharting/TCGplayer completed sales as of August 31, 2026; non-Darkrai chase rows are labeled projections until sufficient sold data exists. Launch-week prices move daily — verify current eBay completed/sold listings before buying. Not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, or Game Freak. This is not financial advice.
