Both Mega Evolution sets got their own sold-basis index on Aug 24, 2026, at 100.00. By the Sep 21 mark Chaos Rising sat at 93.17 (down 6.8%) and Pitch Black at 84.72 (down 15.3%), and Pitch Black lost 6.4% in the latest week alone. Pitch Black still owns the biggest single card: Mega Darkrai ex SIR at $182.25 (median of 30 sales, Sep 22–26) against Mega Greninja ex SIR at $155.00 (30 sales, Sep 23–26). Sealed, the ETBs sit a few dollars apart (lowest asks $67.00 vs $70.50 on Sep 26), while Pitch Black booster boxes are ten times as available on eBay (40 live vs 4).
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Every number here is one the site already publishes or can point at: two set indices, six sold comps, four sealed asks. The index rows decide the headline. The chase rows show where Pitch Black still wins. The sealed rows are asks.
| Read Sep 26, 2026 | Pitch BlackME05 · released Jul 17, 2026 | Chaos RisingME04 · released May 22, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Set index levelre-marked Sep 21, 2026 · sold basis | 84.72Pitch Black Chase Index · 36 cards priced | 93.17Chaos Rising Chase Index · 36 cards priced |
| Since launchboth indices opened at 100.00 on Aug 24, 2026 | −15.3%100.00 → 84.72 in five weekly marks | −6.8%100.00 → 93.17 in five weekly marks |
| Latest weekSep 14 → Sep 21 mark | −6.4%90.52 → 84.72 | −1.8%94.89 → 93.17 |
| #1 chase cardsold comp, ungraded | Mega Darkrai ex SIR #116/084$182.25median of 30 sales, Sep 22–26 · ungraded · PriceChartingShop on eBay → | Mega Greninja ex SIR #116/086$155.00median of 30 sales, Sep 23–26 · ungraded · PriceChartingShop on eBay → |
| #2 chase cardsold comp, ungraded | Mega Darkrai ex MHR #120/084$150.00median of 30 sales, Sep 19–26 · ungraded · PriceChartingShop on eBay → | Mega Greninja ex MHR #122/086$144.97median of 30 sales, Sep 15–26 · ungraded · PriceChartingShop on eBay → |
| #3 chase cardsold comp, ungraded | Morpeko ex SIR #117/084$74.99median of 30 sales, Sep 22–26 · ungraded · PriceChartingShop on eBay → | Cinccino ex SIR #119/086$46.50median of 30 sales, Sep 21–25 · ungraded · PriceChartingShop on eBay → |
| Top three, added upsum of the three medians above | $407.24sold comps, Sep 26 | $346.47sold comps, Sep 26 |
| Elite Trainer Boxlive eBay asks, sealed only · lower is the cheaper entry | $70.50lowest ask · 14 live · Sep 26, 2026 · an ask, not a saleShop ETBs on eBay → | $67.00lowest ask · 12 live · Sep 26, 2026 · an ask, not a saleShop ETBs on eBay → |
| Booster boxlive eBay asks, sealed only · lower is the cheaper entry | $184.99lowest ask · 40 live · Sep 26, 2026 · an ask, not a saleShop Booster boxes on eBay → | $189.99lowest ask · 4 live · Sep 26, 2026 · an ask, not a saleShop Booster boxes on eBay → |
Green edge marks the side the row favors; on the sealed rows that is the cheaper entry. Singles are sold comps: PriceCharting completed sales, the median of the 30 most recent, window shown per cell. Sealed figures are live eBay asks on Sep 26, 2026, read through our comps endpoint with bundles, lots, multi-box listings and Pokémon Center exclusives filtered out; an ask is what a seller wants, not what a box sold for. Index levels are sold-basis and re-marked weekly on Mondays. ShopCardHub participates in the eBay Partner Network.
The index gap is the whole case for Chaos Rising. Same start date, same method, same 36-card basket size, and one set has given back roughly twice as much as the other in five weeks. Chaos Rising is also two months older, so more of its post-release supply has already been absorbed; Pitch Black is still in the window where sealed product keeps arriving, and 40 live booster-box listings against 4 says the same thing from the sealed side.
The case for Pitch Black is one card. Mega Darkrai ex SIR is the highest single sold comp in either set at $182.25, and the two Darkrai chase cards together clear the two Greninja cards by about $32. If you are buying a card rather than a set, that is the row that matters, and it is the row Pitch Black wins.
What the tape does not say. Five weekly marks is a short history, and neither index has a since-release series; both begin Aug 24. The sealed figures are asks, not sales, so they tell you where sellers are, not where boxes clear. A single week can reverse a 1.8% move; it is less likely to reverse a 15.3% one, but the next Monday mark is the test, and it goes on the index pages whether it helps this verdict or not.
If the question is which set to hold as sealed product, the tape favors Chaos Rising on price stability and scarcity. If the question is which set has the card worth chasing, it is Pitch Black's Darkrai. Both index pages carry the full 36-card baskets: Chaos Rising Chase Index and Pitch Black Chase Index.